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Zero Hedge

Financial Survival

Armstrong Economics

  • newNorth Korea Joins the Party
    It is amazing to me that we seem to have complete idiots driving these events and they think that they can just intimidate whoever. All my sources state clearly that China and North Korea will join Russia against this climate change and authoritarian…
    - 5 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 1:30pm -
  • newThe Insanity of Ukraine
     The post The Insanity of Ukraine first appeared on Armstrong Economics.
    - 6 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 12:40pm -
  • newCanadians Not Willing to Hand Over Guns
    The Trudeau Administration wants to eliminate all freedoms. Provinces are fighting back at Trudeau’s gun confiscation, deemed a “mandatory gun buyback” for assault rifles. As usual, the government put this plan in place without a plan for enfor…
    - 15 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 4:05am -
  • newGermany Hits Record Population Growth
    There are now 84 million people living in Germany, according to the German Federal Statistical Office. This has nothing to do with the birth rate, which is on the decline. Instead, the number of Ukrainians seeking refuge in Germany caused the populat…
    - 15 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 4:03am -
  • newUS President Congratulates Coast Guard Hero Before Firing Him
    Technician Second Class Zach Loesch, worked on the frontline during Hurricane Ida, risking his life to save others. Biden was told to call numerous rescue swimmers from the US Coast Guard to thank them for their service. “I told him how proud of hi…
    - 15 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 4:02am -
  • newThe World is Pointing Fingers at the US for Attacking Nord Stream
      Even Jeffrey David Sachs, an American economist, has come out and said on TV, as the journalists go nuts, that the US destroyed Nord Stream. Everyone I have spoken to from around the world, including high levels, all believes the US did this and I…
    - 16 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 2:29am -
  • newCentral Bank QE
      QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Nobody knows history better than you. Will QE continue if we end up in war? It seems there would be no choice. Thank you for your very enlightening blog. PG ANSWER: Yes. The Fed was “directed” by the White House to car…
    - 17 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 2:07am -
  • newPRIVATE BLOG – Ukraine’s Vengeance
    PRIVATE BLOG – Ukraine’s Vengeance Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more, please visit Ask-Socrates.com. https://ask-socrates.com/The post PRIVATE BLOG – Ukraine’s Ven…
    - 17 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 1:42am -
  • newAnswering Questions
    QUESTION #1:  I live in the US. When the sovereign debt explodes, and I will “own nothing “, does that mean that any car, house or property that has a loan on it will become the property of the bank and or government? Does it mean property that…
    - 20 hours ago 3 Oct 22, 10:23pm -
  • newBonds & the Fate of the Future
    The 30-year bond elected a major long-term Quarter Bearish Reversal on target. This confirms the long-term outlook that we had warned back at the high that we were establishing a 5,000-year low in rates (high in bond prices). The sell signals on bond…
    - 23 hours ago 3 Oct 22, 7:39pm -

The Market Ticker

  • newThe Market Ticker - So You Care About Running Mechanics?
    <p>Those of you who have followed me for a while know that I used to run in 5-fingers, the infamous "toe shoes."</p><p>Why?</p><p><em>Because they were true "zero drop"; that is, your forefoot and heel are in <span style="text-decoration: underl…
    - 8 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 11:00am -
  • The Market Ticker - The Castle.....
    <p>Castle of Glass 12*12 $128  </p>
    - 1 day ago 3 Oct 22, 1:00pm -
  • The Market Ticker - Is The Fed About To Destroy America?
    Today The Fed is holding an emergency meeting under "expedited procedures."The actions to be considered are the discount and advance rate -- in other words, interest rates.The rumored reason is that Credit Suisse may be in trouble -- specifically du…
    - 1 day ago 3 Oct 22, 12:00pm -
  • The Market Ticker - Zen And The Art Of Car Repairs
    Things learned from ripping apart (to the empty case) and repairing the rear differential on an '02 Suburban....Yes, they used a case spreader when they put the chunk in and shimmed it.  You don't have one.  While you probably can buy one -- may…
    - 3 days ago 1 Oct 22, 12:04pm -
  • The Market Ticker - On Hurricanes And Damage From Them
    If you're a DeSantis lover click away now.You were fairly warned.Ian came roaring into the Naples/Port Charlotte area as a strong hurricane and trashed a bunch of people's homes and businesses.  Hurricanes do that, as South Florida was rudely awaken…
    - 4 days ago 30 Sep 22, 1:43pm -
  • The Market Ticker - Show Her.....
    Support the roaming and very-cute young lady!Sunset in my dreams 8*10 $80  
    - 5 days ago 29 Sep 22, 6:33pm -
  • The Market Ticker - Oh, Time To Buy? Uh.... No
    <p>The rally yesterday was triggered by a <em>belief </em>that the Bank of England was "restarting" QE while still raising rates.  The money flow into US assets (and out of there) was fast and furious, followed closely by a decent amou…
    - 5 days ago 29 Sep 22, 11:00am -
  • The Market Ticker - Trope Destruction Time
    In case you haven't noticed productivity has been in the tank.  Even the government admits it, but you see it everywhere.  Staff in stores that aren't doing much if anything at all, surly assistance, firms apologizing when you come in the door beca…
    - 6 days ago 28 Sep 22, 12:14pm -

Wolf Street

Dollar Collapse

  • newCharles Hugh Smith: Devil’s Advocates are Investors’ Best Friends
    Guest Post by Charles Hugh Smith from his blog Oftwominds.com: If those on the opposite side of the trade are viewed as threats rather than friends, it’s time to revise the analysis. Of the many self-generated dangers investors face, few are more d…
    - 1 hour ago 4 Oct 22, 5:43pm -
  • newPrecious Metals Stock Watch
      Fortunes will soon be made in precious metal stocks because metals look set to begin a massive, new bull market. Your timing is everything, so start your research:     Precious Metals News 10/04  Mitsubishi materials expects refined copper pro…
    - 3 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 3:32pm -
  • newBreaking News
    Capital controls – the 3rd horseman of the apocalypse…UK Mortgage repayments poised to soar to financial crisis levels…Ports, Mines, Agriculture: what can new regions give Russia’s economy? …NFT trading volume plunges 97% since January…M…
    - 6 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 12:30pm -
  • newSprott: Crash Watch Becomes Crash Warning
    Guest Post by Craig Hemke from the SprottMoney blog:  A regular reader of these weekly columns will recall that the Fed first warned us of their intentions back in April. The U.S. markets had held firm in the months that followed but now finally app…
    - 10 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 8:21am -
  • newMN Gordon: Why Bonds Are Behaving Like Risky Assets
    Guest Post by MN Gordon from his blog Economic Prism: When the [credit] delusion breaks, people all with one impulse hoard their money, banks all with one impulse hoard credit, and debt becomes debt again, as it always was.  Credit is ruined.” –…
    - 20 hours ago 3 Oct 22, 10:18pm -
  • Top Ten Alternative Videos Big Media Doesn’t Want You To See (This Week) – Oct 3 2022
    Super-Strong US Dollar Is De-Stabilizing All Other Fiat Currencies – When Will It End?…Revolution in Italy? Voters ‘Threw The Bums Out!’…Canadian Carbon Tax – Ridiculous Environmental Policy Effects…More Economic Pain Is Coming; You Mus…
    - 1 day ago 3 Oct 22, 8:04am -
  • Spiked!: Why is Germany so terrified of nuclear power?
    Guest Post by Lauren Smith from the Spiked blog: In Germany, as in the rest of Europe, the energy crisis is deepening. The German government was even forced last month to delay its long-scheduled shutdown of Germany’s two remaining nuclear power p…
    - 2 days ago 2 Oct 22, 8:00pm -
  • Alasdair MacLeod: The Crisis is Upon Us
    Guest Post by Alasdair MacLeod from Goldmoney.com: In an extraordinary week of turmoil in global bond markets, gold and silver rallied. In European trade this morning, gold was at $1672, up $28 from last Friday’s close. And silver at $19.16 is up 3…
    - 2 days ago 2 Oct 22, 8:50am -
  • Doug Noland: A Threatening Turn
    Guest Post by Doug Noland from his blog CreditBubbleBulletin: Global de-risking/deleveraging has taken A Threatening Turn. It’s no exaggeration to write that the UK pension system was this week at the brink of spectacular collapse, with confidence…
    - 3 days ago 1 Oct 22, 5:42pm -
  • Mises Wire: Abandoning Sound Money Leads to Tyranny and Ruin
    This is a quick and easy read on what “sound money” is. And how the devaluation of currency has led to tyranny and ruin. Repost of JP Cortez work on the Mises Institute blog. He is a Policy Director at Sound Money Defense League: Money is one of…
    - 3 days ago 1 Oct 22, 1:29pm -

ClusterStock

Money Game

International Business Times

Sovereign Man

  • new15.7 trillion new reasons to be concerned about the national debt
    Last Friday, September 30th 2022 was the close of the Fiscal Year for the US federal government. If you’re not familiar with the term, the ‘Fiscal Year’ refers to the government’s official accounting period. It starts on October 1st and ends…
    - 2 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 4:18pm -
  • The people who engineered record inflation want to control cryptocurrency
    On the First of May in the year 1716, a swashbuckling Scottish entrepreneur was making this pitch of his lifetime to the head of the French government in Paris. The entrepreneur’s name was John Law. By all accounts he was incredibly charismatic and…
    - 1 day ago 3 Oct 22, 5:13pm -
  • “The most impressive failure of his time”
    Lately we’ve been led astray over and over again by supposed ‘experts’ with decades of experience who can’t seem to stop making colossal mistakes. But I’m not just talking about individuals. I’m talking about institutions too. And one ins…
    - 4 days ago 1 Oct 22, 12:11am -
  • When disaster came, I bet on Elon Musk over my local government
    [Editor’s Note: This article was written by Sovereign Man team member Joe Jarvis, who lives in Puerto Rico.] Last week, Hurricane Fiona hit Puerto Rico, knocking out power to the entire island. Over a week later, nearly 25% of the island is still w…
    - 6 days ago 28 Sep 22, 5:45pm -
  • The best way Americans can legally reduce taxes… without moving
    Legally reducing your tax bill is the best risk-free return on investment you can make. Investing in a completely legal tax strategy means keeping 10, 20, even 30% more of your own income. And in many cases the solutions aren’t especially exotic. F…
    - 8 days ago 26 Sep 22, 4:16pm -
  • Align yourself with the trajectory of the world
    John Adams famous wrote to his wife Abigail in the year 1780: “I must study politics and war, that my sons may have the liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. . . in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, and music. .…
    - 11 days ago 23 Sep 22, 4:46pm -
  • How to earn 9.62% during stagflation
    It all started innocently enough. It was July 2, 1997, and the Prime Minister of Thailand had just announced that their currency– the Thai baht– would no longer be pegged to the US dollar. Big deal, right? It doesn’t seem like a boring press co…
    - 14 days ago 20 Sep 22, 5:31pm -
  • Boots on the ground from “Bitcoin Beach” in El Salvador
    (Editor’s note: Our senior analyst, Marat Kurbanov, is writing today’s Notes from El Salvador.) Last year, the small Central American country of El Salvador made a huge splash in the crypto community when the country’s young president, Nayib Bu…
    - 15 days ago 19 Sep 22, 4:18pm -
  • How to Acquire Some of the Best Passports in the World
    Having a second passport has always been one of the most powerful tools in a Plan B strategy. If you are really thinking globally, a second passport (or even third, fourth, etc.) means that you have another option— another countries, or multiple co…
    - 21 days ago 13 Sep 22, 3:20pm -
  • Costa Rica’s ascent as an excellent Plan B destination…
    Given its scenic beauty, relaxed pace of life, affordability and proximity to North America, Costa Rica has long been popular among American retirees. But the country is also increasingly popular among a younger generation of remote workers and digit…
    - 21 days ago 13 Sep 22, 12:40pm -

Investment Watch

Daily Reckoning

  • How Far Could Stocks Fall?
    This post How Far Could Stocks Fall? appeared first on Daily Reckoning.What History PredictsThe post How Far Could Stocks Fall? appeared first on Daily Reckoning.
    - 8 days ago 26 Sep 22, 9:30pm -
  • The World of 2030
    This post The World of 2030 appeared first on Daily Reckoning.Sometimes decades drag by with very little change. At other times transformative changes can take place within a few short years. Will this decade see this type of transformative change?…
    - 10 days ago 24 Sep 22, 6:19pm -
  • How Much Money Is Inflation Costing You?

    How Much Money Is Inflation Costing You?

    This post How Much Money Is Inflation Costing You? appeared first on Daily Reckoning.You Won’t Like the AnswerThe post How Much Money Is Inflation Costing You? appeared first on Daily Reckoning.
    - 11 days ago 23 Sep 22, 6:15pm -
  • Are Stocks Cheap Again?
    This post Are Stocks Cheap Again? appeared first on Daily Reckoning.Here’s What the “Buffett Indicator” SaysThe post Are Stocks Cheap Again? appeared first on Daily Reckoning.
    - 12 days ago 22 Sep 22, 2:32pm -
  • Powell Does It Again
    This post Powell Does It Again appeared first on Daily Reckoning.It’s War!The post Powell Does It Again appeared first on Daily Reckoning.
    - 13 days ago 21 Sep 22, 2:13pm -
  • Deep Into the Danger Zone
    This post Deep Into the Danger Zone appeared first on Daily Reckoning.The Fed’s About to Go DeeperThe post Deep Into the Danger Zone appeared first on Daily Reckoning.
    - 14 days ago 20 Sep 22, 1:36pm -
  • Another Crack in the Dollar’s Foundation
    This post Another Crack in the Dollar’s Foundation appeared first on Daily Reckoning.The Slow EmergencyThe post Another Crack in the Dollar’s Foundation appeared first on Daily Reckoning.
    - 15 days ago 19 Sep 22, 4:11pm -
  • Here’s Who Loves Inflation
    This post Here’s Who Loves Inflation appeared first on Daily Reckoning.Andrew Jackson Turns in His GraveThe post Here’s Who Loves Inflation appeared first on Daily Reckoning.
    - 17 days ago 17 Sep 22, 3:54pm -
  • The Great Pillaging
    This post The Great Pillaging appeared first on Daily Reckoning.Don’t Let Them Rob YouThe post The Great Pillaging appeared first on Daily Reckoning.
    - 18 days ago 16 Sep 22, 3:21pm -
  • The Grim Calculus of Debt
    This post The Grim Calculus of Debt appeared first on Daily Reckoning.The Perils of Rising Interest RatesThe post The Grim Calculus of Debt appeared first on Daily Reckoning.
    - 19 days ago 15 Sep 22, 3:24pm -

Jim Rogers Blog

of two minds

  • Devil's Advocates are Investors' Best Friends
    If those on the opposite side of the trade are viewed as threats rather than friends, it's time to revise the analysis. Of the many self-generated dangers investors face, few are more dangerous than confirmation bias, the comfort we experience seekin…
    - 2 days ago 3 Oct 22, 12:57am -
  • Chart a Course To Self-Reliance
    Self-reliance in the 21st century is uniquely challenging because we've become overly dependent on globalization abd financialization. As things unravel, the one surefire strategy is to chart a course for greater self-reliance. Improving self-relianc…
    - 7 days ago 28 Sep 22, 4:14am -
  • Loonshots and Collapse
    The momentum of franchise success and centralization of power are fatal. Loonshots are like moonshots, only crazier and trickier to commercialize. Author Safi Bahcall titled his book on how to nurture change-the-world innovations Loonshots: How to…
    - 8 days ago 26 Sep 22, 7:09pm -
  • 2022-2030: Transformation or Stagnation?
    Some decades are easy and expansive, others are painful but necessary to lay the foundations for future progress. Many people reject the idea of historical cycles due to their imprecision. I understand the appeal of this objection, but it is nonethel…
    - 11 days ago 23 Sep 22, 3:30pm -
  • Two Easy Predictions: Wealth Tax and Windfall Tax
    Looks like we need another $500 billion or so. Hum baby! Predictions are hard, especially about the future, but two predictions are easy: 1) governments that do not yet impose wealth taxes will do so within the next five years and 2) governments will…
    - 13 days ago 21 Sep 22, 4:42pm -
  • Peering Into the Crystal Ball, We See... Instability Leading to Collapse
    We can only choose one: open, dynamic stability (evolution) or autocracy (instability and collapse). When the fundamentals of life change, every organism must evolve or die. This is equally true of human organizations, societies and economies. Evolu…
    - 16 days ago 19 Sep 22, 1:21am -
  • The End of Cheap Food
    Global food production rests on soil and rain. Robots don't change that. Of all the modern-day miracles, the least appreciated is the incredible abundance of low cost food in the U.S. and other developed countries.The era of cheap food is ending, f…
    - 19 days ago 16 Sep 22, 2:17am -
  • The Fourth Turn, Turn, Turn
    The cycles of The Fourth Turning, Fischer and Turchin are all in alignment at this point in history.. The 1997 book The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy proposed a cyclical pattern of four 20-year generations which culminate in a national crisi…
    - 21 days ago 14 Sep 22, 4:27am -
  • Why This Recession Is Different
    All of these are structural dynamics that won't go away in a few months or years.Let's explore what's different now compared to recessions of the past 60 years.1. Deglobalization is inflationary. Offshoring production to low-cost countries imported d…
    - 23 days ago 12 Sep 22, 2:22am -
  • The EU's Crisis Is Global: Neocolonialism, Hyper-Financialization and Hyper-Globalization Come Home to Roost
    The EU's crisis isn't limited to energy. It is a manifestation of the global breakdown of Neocolonialism, Financialization and Globalization. The European Union (EU) was seen as the culmination of a centuries-long process of integration that would fi…
    - 27 days ago 8 Sep 22, 5:54am -

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

The Big Picture

  • newTranscript: David McRaney
        The transcript from this week’s, MiB: David McRaney on Belief, Opinion, and Persuasion, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including the podcast extras on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Google, YouTube, Bloomberg, and Ac…
    - 7 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 12:00pm -
  • new10 Tuesday AM Reads
    My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Washout: If the leaders are falling, you know the rest of the bunch already got washed out. Indeed, only 8% of the Nasdaq-100 is above the 200-day moving average. (Irrelevant Investor) see also Gettin…
    - 8 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 10:55am -
  • Bogleheads Live
    Click for audio   I sat down with Jon Luskin of Bogleheads to record episode #18: We focus on the cognitive & behavioral side of investing, as well as different ways of approaching risk.The post Bogleheads Live appeared first on The Big Picture.
    - 1 day ago 3 Oct 22, 2:00pm -
  • 10 Monday AM Reads
    My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Ten handy phrases for bluffing your way through the new financial crisis: Those screams you hear are ten thousand self-appointed financial experts howling into the existential abyss. (The Spectator) • C…
    - 1 day ago 3 Oct 22, 10:55am -
  • Populations in Riskier Geographies
    Great interactive from the Washington Post showing the past 50 years. During that time, millions of people have moved into Hurricane alley — the route that seasonal storms frequently take from the Caribbean up the coast.   Click to see the time la…
    - 2 days ago 2 Oct 22, 3:00pm -
  • 10 Sunday Reads
    Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • ‘It Was All a Hoax’: This 27-year-old Venezuelan man was one of 50 migrants taken to Martha’s Vineyard from San Antonio, Texas, under the direction of…
    - 2 days ago 2 Oct 22, 10:30am -
  • MiB: David McRaney on Belief, Opinion, and Persuasion
         This week, we speak with science journalist David McRaney, who investigates the psychology of reasoning, decision-making and judgment on his blog “You Are Not So Smart.” The blog, which he launched in 2009, spawned a bestselling book, n…
    - 3 days ago 1 Oct 22, 3:15pm -
  • 10 Weekend Reads
    Welcome to October! The weekend is here, so pour yourself a mug of Porto Rico Import coffee, grab a seat on the sofa, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • The Great Bluff: How the Ukrainians Outwitted Putin’s Army: Russia’s army…
    - 3 days ago 1 Oct 22, 10:30am -
  • 7th Inning Stretch
      “Are we there yet?” is not just a line from the kids in the back of the car — it’s the question that investors, speculators, and professional traders have been asking themselves lately. TL:dr? Almost. We are almost there – down ~25% this…
    - 4 days ago 30 Sep 22, 8:00pm -
  • 10 Friday AM Reads
    My end-of-Q3 say farewell to September morning WFH reads: • If Your Quiet Quitting Is Going Well, You Might Be Getting ‘Quiet Fired’: Workers who coast risk being written off—and eventually laid off—by bosses with ‘productivity paranoia.…
    - 4 days ago 30 Sep 22, 10:50am -

Jesse's Cafe Americain

Angry Bear

  • newOpen thread Oct. 3, 2022
    The post Open thread Oct. 3, 2022 appeared first on Angry Bear.
    - 5 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 1:53pm -
  • newSelling fairytales to the credulous

    - 8 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 11:00am -
  • newSeptember manufacturing new orders and August construction spending both turn down
    September manufacturing new orders and August construction spending both turn down  – by New Deal democrat As usual, we begin another month and another quarter with important manufacturing and construction data. The ISM manufacturing index has a…
    - 8 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 10:30am -
  • newWhat is in My In-Box
    As you can see bullet spewing weapons takes the lead this week. There are a lot of articles as taken from JAMA Network. which also has more and unlisted here. You are probably also wondering why the term “bullet spewing weapons” verbiage. There w…
    - 9 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 10:00am -
  • Who gets paid sick days?
    From the Economic Policy Institute comes this piece on who gets benefits: The pandemic highlighted vast inequalities in the United States, especially in the U.S. labor market. Striking disparities were magnified in who could work from home and who ha…
    - 1 day ago 3 Oct 22, 1:28pm -
  • Did Biden Lie About Social Security or is Washington Post’s Fact Checker a Damned Liar?
    “Did Biden Lie About Social Security or is Washington Post’s Fact Checker a Damned Liar?“ Dale Coberly: Well. you won’t find out from me.  I only read about it third hand, and because the “fact checker” …Glenn Kessler….is behind a pa…
    - 1 day ago 3 Oct 22, 11:00am -
  • Solutionary Rail – A people-powered campaign to electrify America’s railroads . . .
    Solutionary Rail – “A people-powered campaign to electrify America’s railroads and open corridors to a clean energy future“ I was wandering around the internet when I came across the Solutionary Rail site. I was looking for something in parti…
    - 1 day ago 3 Oct 22, 10:30am -
  • Report From Moscow
    Report From Moscow by Barkley Rosser  My wife, Marina, has returned from a two and a half week to Moscow to visit her 93 year old mother.  She almost got bumped from her Turkish Airlines flight out of Moscow through Istanbul, but her travel agent m…
    - 2 days ago 2 Oct 22, 11:00am -
  • He thought they were migrants on the bus
    This is kind of an interesting story. It shows how crazy some of us and it also shows a presence in our military too. Active or reservist military are not supposed to be doing this. Here we have an off-duty officer of the Massachusetts Army National…
    - 2 days ago 2 Oct 22, 10:30am -
  • Review of “The Future is History”
    I’ve long held that one of the greatest blows to American democracy was the disappearance of the Soviet Union. With the advent of the Cold War, as the USSR went from ally to adversary, the US was shamed into embrace civil rights and to improve publ…
    - 2 days ago 2 Oct 22, 10:04am -

The Burning Platform

Silicon Valley Insider

The Wire

War Room

Naked Capitalism

Coyote Blog

  • Buying and Selling a Business
    Since a number of folks have asked me via email: yes, I am OK and would someday like to get back to active long-form blogging (I still make a foray into twitter now and again).  However, things have been a bit crazy here.  A number of business owne…
    - 24 Apr 22, 11:36pm -
  • Christmas Wonder, with Penguins
    I always enjoy Christmas day with the family.  But no matter how good a day we have together, it can never quite duplicate the sense of wonder when one is 8 or 9 and you come down the stairs to see the Christmas tree surrounded in gifts brought by S…
    - 26 Dec 21, 2:20am -
  • Regional Variations in COVID are SEASONAL, not Correlated with Party of the Governor
    If you want a pointer towards the seasonality of the COVID virus, check out the NY Times per capita case map for the US for today:   (hat tip to boriquagato@substack.com) This looks like a weather map, not a map of Trump v. Biden voters or party af…
    - 20 Dec 21, 5:06pm -
  • An Open Letter to California Public Recreation Officials
    New California rules are set to effectively end the ability of RVers to use generators to produce power in California:   https://rvmiles.com/california-generator-ban/ I am sending this to a number of folks we work with in the USFS and California S…
    - 14 Dec 21, 7:46pm -
  • If Fauci Were A Scientist
    I am not blogging much due to some overwhelming work circumstances in my real life.  However, I cannot believe the reaction of world leaders racing to institute the most onerous of restrictions on citizens based on the reports that a new COVID varia…
    - 29 Nov 21, 6:43am -
  • A Few Thoughts on Yale Law School
    I won't go into all the details (one of many articles on this incident here), but the Yale Law School administration attempted to blackmail and intimidate one of their students over a party invitation he sent out, the main complaint seeming to be the…
    - 23 Oct 21, 11:04pm -
  • Fixed SSL Issue (I Hope)
    After a lot of complicated debugging, of course it was something simple -- the certificate failed to renew automatically.  Hopefully all is working correctly now Update:  Of course then I screwed something else up.  Some sort of problem with php v…
    - 6 Oct 21, 9:59pm -
  • Understanding the Difference Between Authoritarianism and Totalitarianism
    Who says universities don't teach anything useful? The difference between mere authoritarianism and totalitarianism is often hard to explain to people, and some want to use the terms interchangeably.  But I think this distinction is particularly imp…
    - 6 Oct 21, 4:07pm -
  • 20 Years Ago Today on September 11...
    ... I was in Manhattan on a business trip from Seattle.  Ironically, I was running an aviation-related startup and in town to try to convince my investors to fund a new round based on improvements in the commercial aviation business.   Perhaps the…
    - 11 Sep 21, 8:14pm -
  • Back When The ACLU Actually Stood Up For Civil Rights, Rather Than Shilling for Totalitarianism
    This article by Glenn Greenwald on the ACLU's response to COVID is simply remarkable.  I won't even try to excerpt it.  Suffice it to say that barely a decade ago, the ACLU actually was concerned about individual rights being trashed by coercive go…
    - 7 Sep 21, 11:39pm -

Deal Breaker

Deal Book

Dr. Housing Bubble

Marc to Market

  • newStocks and Bonds Extend Rally
    Overview:  The big bond and stock market seen yesterday has continued today.  The Reserve Bank of Australia’s reversion to a quarter-point hike stokes hope that the aggressive tightening cycle more broadly is set to slow.  The UN’s Conference…
    - 9 hours ago 4 Oct 22, 9:56am -
  • Monday Blues
    Overview: The markets begin October with some trepidation.  Rumors continue to circulate about the health of a large European bank, cross currency swaps are elevated, suggest dollars are more difficult to access.  The S&P 500 settled on new lows fo…
    - 1 day ago 3 Oct 22, 9:54am -
  • October 2022 Monthly
    The historic dollar rally accelerated in September. By some measures, it is as rich as it has been in the half-century since the end of Bretton Woods. Persistent price pressures, a robust labor market in many dimensions, and the Federal Reserve's lat…
    - 2 days ago 2 Oct 22, 11:37am -
  • Week Ahead: Macro and Prices
    The market has much to digest. The Bank of England's new purchases of Gilts coincided with a reassessment of the trajectory of Fed policy. After the hawkish FOMC decision and forecasts, the market briefly thought the terminal rate could be 5.25-5.50…
    - 3 days ago 1 Oct 22, 11:27am -
  • Wake Me Up When September Ends
    Overview: Benchmark 10-year yields are off 6-8 basis points in Europe and the United States. The panic seen at the start of the week in the UK has subsided considerably, as sterling recovered to almost where it was a week ago, while BOE’s hand has…
    - 4 days ago 30 Sep 22, 9:59am -
  • Semblance of Calm Returns
    (Business travel will prevent me from updating the blog for the next couple of days.  Thank you for your patience.  Good luck.)Overview: After extending last week’s moves yesterday, the capital markets are mostly calmer today. Sterling is firmer,…
    - 7 days ago 27 Sep 22, 10:15am -
  • Sterling Continues to be Pounded
    Overview: Sterling’s pounding continued in Asia where it was driven to $1.0350, a new record low before stabilizing. UK rates also continued to rise sharply after the new government promised more tax cuts next year. The right-wing victory in Italy…
    - 8 days ago 26 Sep 22, 10:07am -
  • The Precipitous Moves in the Roller Coaster Known as the Foreign Exchange Market
    The dollar surged last week. Sure, the push of the Fed was notable, but the larger move from Sweden's Riksbank failed to impress. In fact, the Swedish krona was the poorest performer among the G10 currencies, tumbling 5% last week. Sterling was pumm…
    - 9 days ago 25 Sep 22, 11:33am -
  • Macro: Tell Us Something We Don't Already Know
    As September winds down, three sets of economic reports will draw the most attention. We will review them and then offer a snapshot of the emerging market central bank meetings. As we have seen in the UK and Norway, several emerging market countries…
    - 10 days ago 24 Sep 22, 11:30am -
  • It will be Enough, even if Too Much
    Business travel commitments keep me from updating the blog until the weekend, but I wanted to share a few thoughts post-Fed. First, the Fed was more hawkish, and the median dot sees 125 bp increase in the target rate in Q4.  The hawkish thrust was…
    - 13 days ago 21 Sep 22, 11:32pm -

Business Insider Video

The Reformed Broker

  • newClips From Today’s Halftime Report
    What today’s market bounce means for the real economy from CNBC. Final Trades: GXO, Gold & Semis from CNBC....The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
    - 40 mins ago 4 Oct 22, 6:07pm -
  • The Fastest Drop in Home Prices Since 2009
    ...The post The Fastest Drop in Home Prices Since 2009 appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
    - 1 day ago 3 Oct 22, 4:21pm -
  • The Investor Opportunity Index hits a two-year high
    Every bear market has these two things in common:They endExpected returns go up ...The post The Investor Opportunity Index hits a two-year high appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
    - 1 day ago 3 Oct 22, 1:49pm -
  • You weren’t supposed to see that
    Then, and only then, when the world is normalized, can the beatings end....The post You weren’t supposed to see that appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
    - 2 days ago 2 Oct 22, 6:25pm -
  • This Week on TRB
    These were the most read posts on the site this week, in case you missed it:...The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
    - 2 days ago 2 Oct 22, 1:11pm -
  • Wait ‘Til The VIX Spikes
    Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends....The post Wait ‘Til The VIX Spikes appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
    - 4 days ago 30 Sep 22, 11:05am -
  • Clips From Today’s Halftime Report
    The ‘Halftime Report’ investment committee weighs in on the mega-cap tech slump from CNBC. ‘Halftime Report’ investment committee debates Citadel’s Ken Griffin and his 60/40 portfolio strategy from CNBC. Inside Credit Suisse’s bearish cal…
    - 5 days ago 29 Sep 22, 6:17pm -
  • Clips From Today’s Closing Bell
    Apple is actually a detractor from the market today, says Ritholtz’s Josh Brown from CNBC....The post Clips From Today’s Closing Bell appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
    - 6 days ago 28 Sep 22, 9:18pm -
  • Clips From Today’s Halftime Report
    The Fed is fighting for creditability, says Ritholtz’s Josh Brown from CNBC. Final Trades: Deere, Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth & more from CNBC....The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
    - 7 days ago 27 Sep 22, 6:09pm -
  • Josh Gets His Face Ripped
    Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts?...The post Josh Gets His Face Ripped appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
    - 7 days ago 27 Sep 22, 2:11pm -

Shadow Stats

  • Flash Commentary No, 1460b
    • Fundamentals Could Not Be Stronger for Gold and Silver, nor Weaker for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Fed or Market Nonsense to the Contrary • There Is No V-Shaped Recovery • Battered, Non-Recovered May 2021 Payrolls and Unemployment C…
    - 21 Jun 21, 12:57am -
  • Flash Commentary No. 1460a
    • Benchmarked Industrial Production Revised Sharply Lower; Both Manufacturing and Mining Were Hit Hard • New Numbers Indicate the Economy Was in a Deepening Recession, Well Before the Pandemic Shutdown and Collapse • Old Numbers Showed Produc…
    - 31 May 21, 11:07pm -
  • Benchmark Commentary No. 1459
    • Intractable and Deteriorating Conditions Still Signal No Imminent Economic Recovery, Irrespective of Some Bounces in March Activity Against Weather-Driven February Collapses • Monthly Annual and Post-Pandemic Payroll Declines Have Stabilized A…
    - 21 Apr 21, 9:15am -
  • Flash Commentary No. 1458
    • January 2021 Manufacturing Declined Year-to-Year for the 19th Consecutive Month, Still in the Downturn Induced by the FOMC 15 Months Before the Pandemic Collapse • Where January 2021 Year-to-Year Manufacturing Contracted by 1.0% (-1.0%), It Al…
    - 24 Feb 21, 9:59am -
  • Flash Commentary No. 1457
    • Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Soared to an April 2020 Peak of About 32%, Worse Than in the Great Depression; Such Was Against a January 2020 Pre-Pandemic U.3 Unemployment Rate of 3.5% • In the Latest Four Months, Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Ha…
    - 16 Feb 21, 3:21am -
  • Flash Commentary No. 1456
    • Fourth-Quarter 2020 Annualized Real GDP Growth of 4.0% Was as Expected, Slowing from the Record 33.4% Third-Quarter Pandemic Rebound • Full-Year 2020 Annual GDP Decline of 3.5% (-3.5%) Was the Deepest Since the 1946 Post-World War II Economic…
    - 1 Feb 21, 9:45am -
  • Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1455
    • Key Monthly Economic Numbers Turned Negative Anew in Fourth-Quarter 2020 • Narrowing Annual Declines in October and November Payrolls Stalled at 6.0% (-6.0%), But the Year-to-Year Drop in December 2020 Payrolls Deepened to 6.2% (-6.2%) • An…
    - 28 Jan 21, 3:03pm -
  • Economic Commentary No. 1454
    • Deepening Economic Woes and Soaring Inflation Ahead • Underlying Economic and Labor Numbers through November Indicate Contracting or Flattening Fourth-Quarter 2020 GDP, Well Shy of Economic Recovery • On Top of Downside Revisions, Declining…
    - 30 Dec 20, 12:58am -
  • Economic Commentary No. 1453
    • Four Million Unemployed People Are Missing from the Headline Labor Force • Pandemic-Disrupted U.3 Unemployment Effectively Was 9.0% in November 2020, Not the Headlined 6.7% • November Unemployment and Payrolls Confirmed Stalled, L-Shaped, N…
    - 15 Dec 20, 1:33am -
  • Flash Commentary No. 1452
    • October 2020 Cass Freight Index® Turned Positive Year-to-Year, Gaining 2.4% Against an Unusually Sharp, Unseasonable Decline the Year Before • Such Was the First Annual Gain in Freight Activity Since November 2018, When Excessive Fed Tighten…
    - 23 Nov 20, 10:48pm -

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